Consistent Profits, yet Facing Liquidation

May 12, 2025

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The landscape of mutual funds has always been dynamic, driven by a multitude of market factors and investor behaviorsWhile typically, fund liquidation often correlates with consistently poor performance or a decline in assets below the necessary thresholds, an intriguing trend has emerged where even funds exhibiting exceptional performance find themselves facing closureThis phenomenon raises questions about the underlying mechanics of investment strategies and market reactions.

Recent examples of liquidated funds or those on the verge of liquidation highlight a peculiar situation: many of these funds are not small or struggling but rather well-established funds with sizable assets, sometimes exceeding billions of yuanThese funds have managed to deliver positive returns and even outperform their benchmarks, only to be beset by heavy redemptions that reduce their size and functionality, ultimately leading them towards liquidation.

This counterintuitive scenario is rooted in the complex interplay between fund companies and institutional investors, both wielding significant influence over fund operationsA handful of institutions, holding a large proportion of the shares, possess considerable leverageWhen market conditions favor them, these investors may redeem large portions of their investments, causing the fund's overall asset size to rapidly contractThis can lead smaller or middle-tier fund companies to elaborate strategies to maintain operations, while larger firms may lean towards optimizing their resource allocation through closures.

Experts in market analysis note that this phenomenon is particularly evident among custom funds tailored for institutions

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Prior communication between fund companies and institutional investors typically ensures that such operations adhere to regulatory standardsHowever, during fund activities, the allure of profitability often draws in a surge of retail investorsThese investors may only perceive the apparent success of the fund, remaining blissfully unaware of the lurking risk of impending liquidationConsequently, during this sequence of events, while the fund company successfully navigates its institutional business, retail investors are left to become unwitting victims of the information asymmetry.

Despite posting positive and even excess returns, the reality of potential liquidation looms in the backgroundFor instance, Hwabonds Tianjin Bond Fund found itself continuously below the threshold of $500,000 in net asset value for over 30 business days, as revealed in a December announcementNotably, this fund is not a low performer; when it launched in June 2022, it boasted an impressive initial size of $8 billion.

The fund experienced fluctuations due to market volatility but reported a return of roughly 2.23% since inception, with a respectable year-to-date return of 1.20%. Its third-quarter report showed strong positive returns across different time frames, illustrating that it was not only surviving but thriving until the tide turned with heavy redemptions from major investors.

Other funds, like the Invesco Great Wall Tianan Mixed Fund, also reflect the somewhat disheartening trendOne notable example is its liquidation procedure initiated after its assets fell below $500,000 for 60 consecutive business daysThough the fund had an initial size of $500 million and had achieved nearly a 50% return since inception, the dramatic shift towards liquidation shocked many stakeholders involved.

The Qianhai United Bond Fund also illustrates this continuing trend

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Initially raising $4.51 billion upon its establishment in 2018, this fund recorded an astonishing return of over 20%. While statistically successful, the actual number of fund holders remained low and concentrated, leading to a precarious situation should redemptions arise.

Curiously, in multiple cases observed, these funds with remarkable financial performance shared a common characteristic: their number of holders was relatively few, with a few institutional investors controlling substantial sharesHence, when these entities enacted significant redemptions, the liquid asset base quickly contracted towards—or beneath—the predetermined liquidation threshold.

For example, the Hwabonds Tianjin Bond Fund saw its shares reduce from an initial $80 billion to approximately $33.68 billion within three months of launch, driven largely by a single institutional investor who withdrew a staggering $16.5 billion worth.

The systemic risk posed by institutional investor behavior has consequences for smaller fund companies, which may feel pressured to maintain their funds' operations despite challengesIn contrast, larger firms can exercise a more strategic approach, using fund liquidations to revamp and channel resources more effectively.

Reflecting on broader implications, this scenario outlines a significant disconnect between institutional knowledge and retail investor awarenessRetail investors may become active participants in funds displaying lucrative returns without full comprehension of potential insolvency stemming from actions taken by the companies behind them.

In essence, while a fund’s historical performance may suggest solidity, the reality can unravel rapidly under the strain of institutional withdrawals, resulting in retail investors experiencing inequitable situations

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